Why does your weekly shop feel more expensive even though politicians keep saying inflation is under control? Waitrose's decision to suspend mackerel sales due to overfishing concerns offers a clue: the real cost of everything is still climbing, regardless of what monthly inflation figures suggest.

The Consumer Price Index including housing costs hit 201,118 points in 2025, a number that sounds abstract until you realise what it actually means. (Source: ONS, CPIH (Consumer Prices Index including Housing))

That index was just 162,574 in 2021. In four years, the baseline cost of living in Britain has jumped by nearly 24%. Your £100 weekly shop from 2021 now costs £123.70 for exactly the same items.

But here's the kicker: this isn't just about the pandemic or the energy crisis anymore. Even as headline inflation rates dropped through 2024, the index kept climbing. It rose from 195,247 last year to 201,118 this year. That's another 3% increase when everyone thought the worst was behind us.

This explains why families still feel squeezed despite government assurances that inflation is tamed. The index doesn't reset when inflation falls. It's cumulative. Every price rise since 1988 is baked into that 201,118 figure, and it only goes in one direction.

Consider what this means for a typical household. The mortgage or rent that seemed manageable in 2021 now competes with food, energy, and transport costs that have all shifted upward together. A family spending £2,000 monthly on essentials in 2021 needs £2,474 today for the same standard of living.

The trajectory is relentless. From 2021 to 2022, the index jumped by nearly 16,000 points. The 2022-2023 increase was almost 13,000 points. Even the supposedly calmer 2024-2025 period added nearly 6,000 points.

This is why Tyrrells can plan to axe vegetable crisps while shoppers grimace at checkout totals. Companies make hard choices about product lines because they know consumers are reaching their spending limits. The cumulative weight of four years of price rises has fundamentally reset what people can afford.

Politicians celebrate falling inflation rates, but they're measuring the wrong thing for most families. What matters isn't whether prices are rising slower than last month. What matters is that everything costs 24% more than it did four years ago, and wages haven't kept pace.

The 201,118 index level represents the highest cost of living in British history. That's not a temporary blip or a statistical quirk. It's the new normal, and it explains why your weekly shop feels like a monthly struggle.