On the same day Sir Mark Rowley acknowledged widespread distrust in policing following Sarah Everard's murder, quietly released Ministry of Justice data revealed a different crisis entirely: theft reoffending has exploded by 55.5% since 2086, jumping from 3,243 cases to 5,043 cases by 2099.

The timing couldn't be more pointed. While the BBC reported on the Met chief's admission that he "can understand why women don't trust the police," the numbers show that for those who do get caught stealing, the system is failing spectacularly to stop them doing it again.

This isn't about detection rates or response times. This is about what happens after someone gets caught, prosecuted, and sentenced. More than 5,000 people proved they were willing to steal again within two years of their previous theft conviction. That's 1,800 more repeat thieves than we had just over a decade ago.

The surge cuts against everything politicians claim about rehabilitation and tough sentencing. If the criminal justice system was working, you'd expect repeat theft to stay stable or fall as better programmes helped offenders change course. Instead, it's rocketing upward while everyone argues about police trust and public confidence.

Consider what this means on the ground. Every one of those 5,043 cases represents someone who got caught stealing, went through the courts, served whatever sentence they received, then decided to steal again within 24 months. They're not just statistics. They're shopkeepers' worst fears, insurance premiums rising, and communities where people have stopped leaving anything valuable visible in their cars.

The political conversation fixates on police visibility and response times. But these figures suggest the real problem starts after the arrest. Something in how Britain handles convicted thieves is making them more likely, not less likely, to reoffend. Prison sentences that don't rehabilitate? Community orders without proper support? Fines that push people deeper into the desperation that drove them to steal in the first place?

The 55.5% increase spans a period when Britain faced austerity cuts, a pandemic, and a cost-of-living crisis. Each of those could explain some increase in first-time theft. None of them explains why people who've already been through the system once are coming back at such dramatically higher rates.

While the Met commissioner talks about the long road to rebuilding trust, the data suggests a more immediate crisis: we're catching thieves just fine. We're just completely failing to stop them stealing again. (Source: Ministry of Justice, Proven Reoffending -- proven-reoffending_jan24_mar24_3_monthly -- B3_(3_monthly))