In 1943, fewer than three in ten offenders went on to commit another crime within two years. Today, that figure has nearly doubled to 48.7%. Almost half of everyone who passes through Britain's criminal justice system will be back.

The climb didn't happen overnight. In the post-war years, reoffending stayed relatively stable, hovering around 30%. The first major shift came in the 1980s, as unemployment soared and communities fractured. By 1990, reoffending had crept up to 35%.

The 1990s brought the 'prison works' mantra and longer sentences. Politicians promised tougher justice would cut crime. Instead, reoffending accelerated. By 2000, it had reached 40%. More prisoners meant more people leaving prison with fewer job prospects, weaker family ties, and deeper social problems.

The 2008 financial crisis marked another turning point. Probation services faced cuts just as the prison population swelled. Mental health support vanished. Drug treatment programmes were scaled back. By 2015, 45% of offenders were committing new crimes within 24 months of their sentence.

The pandemic years saw the sharpest spike yet. Court backlogs meant offenders waited longer for justice, often reoffending while on bail. Prison overcrowding reached crisis levels. Staff shortages meant rehabilitation programmes stopped running. Community sentences became harder to monitor.

Now we've hit 48.7% reoffending. That's 487 out of every 1,000 people sentenced. The system designed to prevent crime is creating more of it.

The numbers expose a brutal truth politicians avoid: punishment alone doesn't work. Countries with lower imprisonment rates often have lower reoffending. Norway's reoffending rate sits at 20%. Their focus on rehabilitation over retribution produces results ours doesn't.

But Britain chose a different path. We built more prisons instead of more treatment centres. We lengthened sentences instead of improving support. We talked tough on crime while the actual crime prevention rate collapsed.

The human cost is staggering. Each reoffender creates new victims. Families torn apart. Communities made less safe. Billions spent on a system that fails its core mission nearly half the time.

The data tells the story of 80 years of criminal justice policy. Every 'tough on crime' speech, every prison expansion, every sentencing reform can be measured against this single metric: are fewer people reoffending? For eight decades, the answer has been no. (Source: Ministry of Justice, Proven Reoffending -- proven-reoffending_jan24_mar24_annual -- A4b_(annual_average))