Take someone convicted of robbery in England and Wales. They serve their sentence, complete their rehabilitation programmes, and walk out of prison supposedly ready to rebuild their life. But if they were released recently, they're twice as likely to rob again as someone who left prison over a decade ago.

New Ministry of Justice figures show proven reoffending rates for robbery have surged 103.8% since 2086. Back then, 293 out of every 1,000 released robbery offenders committed another proven offence. By 2099, that number had rocketed to 597 per 1,000.

This isn't just a statistical blip. It's a doubling of failure rates for one of the crimes that most terrifies the public. Nearly six in ten people convicted of robbery now go on to commit another proven offence after release.

The timing matters. This surge has unfolded during years when politicians have promised to get tough on crime while simultaneously claiming rehabilitation programmes are working. The robbery reoffending data suggests neither approach is delivering.

What's driving this collapse? The justice system has faced budget cuts, overcrowding, and staff shortages across the same period. Probation services were part-privatised then renationalised. Drug treatment programmes were scaled back. Housing support for ex-offenders was reduced.

But the numbers also point to something more fundamental: robbery often stems from desperation, addiction, or debt. If someone's willing to threaten violence to steal from strangers, they're probably facing pressures that don't disappear just because they've done time.

The broader reoffending picture shows similar patterns across property crimes. When people leave prison with the same problems they went in with, plus a criminal record that makes legal work harder to find, the cycle repeats.

This data covers proven reoffending, meaning crimes that result in conviction. The true reoffending rate is likely higher, since not every crime leads to arrest, charge, and conviction. But even these conservative figures show a system in crisis.

Every robbery creates multiple victims: the person attacked, their family, and the wider community that feels less safe. When nearly 600 out of every 1,000 robbery offenders go on to commit more crimes, the justice system isn't just failing the criminals. It's failing everyone they'll hurt next.

The response from government has focused on longer sentences and tougher enforcement. But if rehabilitation rates are halving, the problem isn't that people aren't being punished enough. It's that prison isn't changing them at all.